Within its first week “Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain” has shipped over 3 million copies globally. Most rating sites put the game at no lower than nine out of 10, with popular sites like IGN and Gamestop giving the game a perfect 10. The game itself is a brilliant addition to the series. However, this might be the beginning of the end for the “Metal Gear” series.
“Metal Gear Solid V” was no easy project. Its total development budget was estimated to be around $80 million. Even if it’s the third-biggest launch this year, falling behind “Batman: Arkham Knight” and “The Witcher 3,” it’s estimated that Japanese game developer Konami Corporation will need to sell around another three million just to break even. However, this is not the reason the series might be in turmoil.
All signs point to Konami shifting entirely to mobile. In the past, Konami has produced some of the most memorable game series, such as “Silent Hill,” “Castlevania,” and even “Dance Dance Revolution.” However, in the last three years the company has only been producing sequels to their most valuable IPs for console games, “Pro Evolution Soccer,” “Metal Gear,” and “Castlevania.” This is because these games are guaranteed to sell. This led to a total of eight games produced, with one of them leased to and developed by an external company, Platinum Games. Over the same timespan Konami has also produced 17 games for the iPhone OS and eight for the Android. And these mobile games are extremely profitable.
This year Hideki Hayakawa assumed presidency of Konami Digital Entertainment. His previous position was executive producer of “Dragon Collection,” a very successful mobile game. He himself has admitted multiple times that the company has already switched its focus to mobile. However, that’s not the end of it. In an interview with The Nikkei, a large media corporation in Japan, Hayakawa, when asked how he perceived the current gaming industry, said, “I strongly felt that mobile devices would soon become the major game platforms and that our business would depend on running an ‘operation-driven’ model that would allow us to stay abreast of changing customer usage trends and swiftly evolve our games to suit them. This means that in terms of arcade, console and card games as well, we need to shift away from selling only ‘tangible’ products to also providing ‘intangible’ additions.”
An “operation-driven” model means a greater focus on present interests and trends, as opposed to long term goals. Simply put, it’s a method that relies on what works now, as opposed to creating a product with an inventive edge and hoping it floats. This shift from tangible to intangible means the shift to produce additional content to games after their release. This is commonly known as DLC and micro-transactions. This is a goal that is completely in-line with mobile gaming. Mobile games can be produced cheaply and quickly. It’s a safe gamble for Konami because a game can flop without any major consequences. They also do not have to be very inventive. Collection games, dungeon crawlers and rhythm arcade games are all very safe and established methods that people still consume consistently.
The reason behind this shift is because Konami is not just in the game-producing industry. They also run casinos and manufacture Pachinko machines. As of recently they’ve started advertising their new “Silent Hill” and “Castlevania”-style slot machines. Their goal is to profit without risk. It’s the mentality that all casinos have. Console games can be very risky. Imagine if MGSV didn’t sell well. That’s a waste in the tens of millions of dollars as well as years of development. It’s not a safe business, even when you have very popular series.
So what does this mean for “Metal Gear Solid”? The new game will probably still be very profitable. MGSV: TPP already has the presence of micro-transactions. Paid-for DLC is most likely also going to be produced. The game is undoubtedly going to break even. So why no more MGS? “Metal Gear Solid” is a beloved series. Because of this, Konami will be very unwilling to part with the original IP. At best, we can hope they’ll lease it to Platinum Industries to create “Metal Gear Rising 2.” At worst, we’re going to see some mobile MGS games and MGS-themed slot machines.