The Washington Wizards’ Gilbert Arenas was taken with the 31st pick in the 2001 NBA Draft. The Milwaukee Bucks nabbed sharpshooter Michael Redd with the 43rd selection in 2000. And Manu Ginobili — a key member of the San Antonio Spurs’ multiple championships — was taken 57th overall in 1999.
Each year, fans look to the NBA Draft as a source of divine luck — a lottery that will grant their favorite teams the steal of the draft (like the three mentioned above) — and turn them into championship contenders.
While this year’s crop of young rookies is as heralded as any in league history, it remains to be seen whether they’ll produce. But the fact that 2007’s rookies have been mentioned alongside the great draft pools, including 1996 (Iverson, Bryant, Nash), 1984 (Jordan, Barkley, Olajuwon, Stockton) and, perhaps the greatest ever, 2003 (James, Wade, Anthony, Bosh) is a telling sign unto itself.
Each of those draft classes featured a few studs and plenty of duds. While this year’s draft will yield its own superstars (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant come to mind), the class of 2007 will be remembered most for its depth and all-around talent.
First things first: There is no question that Kevin Durant will be Rookie of the Year after all is said and done. Greg Oden’s season-ending knee injury coupled with Durant’s unlimited playing time in Seattle is a recipe that’s simply too much for the other candidates to overcome. History has shown that rookies with the highest stats typically win the award. Expect Durant to average just under 20, and 10 his rookie year once he shakes off a sprained left ankle.
Not that there is an award for second-best Rookie of the Year, but if there were, this year’s class provides a wealth of intriguing competition.
Based on preseason play, the Clippers’ Al Thornton (14th overall) is the surprise dark horse. His numbers (18.7 points, 5.7 rebounds) combined with Elton Brand’s absence until February at the earliest and the Clippers’ lack of a go-to scorer make him a lock to contribute right away.
The Atlanta Hawks’ duo of Al Horford (2nd overall) and Acie Law (11th overall) should also see considerable playing time. Horford will have to fend off forwards Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams for court burn. But his summer stats will force Mike Woodson to find a way to get him on the floor.
It will take longer for Law to claim the starting point guard job over Speedy Claxton, but Law is just as fast and he’s a better playmaker.
Minnesota’s Corey Brewer (7th overall) is another rookie to keep an eye on. Though the former Florida forward is still raw, Brewer is a potential dream for fantasy owners with his ability to stuff the stat sheets.
Seattle’s other rookie — Jeff Green (5th overall) — will likely be lost in Durant’s shadow, but the combo forward demonstrated a smooth, all-around game in July’s Rocky Mountain Revue. With an injury-prone Wally Szczerbiak ahead of him on the depth chart, Green should see some action.
However, Einstein’s take on the draft would be that for every surprise steal, there is an opposite and equal disappointment.
The No. 4 pick, Mike Conley, will face stiff competition for starting point guard in Memphis with Damon Stoudamire and a blossoming Kyle Lowry. Conley is talented, but the point guard position is the toughest to learn for a rookie.
The Houston Rockets picked up a “rookie” in Luis Scola from Argentina. Scola is actually 27 and has been playing international ball for years. Houston’s hole at the power forward spot places too many expectations on him, and while Argentines typically thrive in the NBA, one of them is bound to disappoint. Scola is the odd man out.
With few exceptions, 2007 looks to be a solid season for rookies. Only time will tell if it becomes the greatest class of NBA athletes ever.