WASHINGTON, D.C.8212;Jon Summers is worried about Barack Obama.
Even though the Illinois senator is leading polls in nearly every swing state with less than one week until Election Day, Summers thinks his presidential pick might not win.
Summers, a freshman studying Arabic at Georgetown University who is originally from Florida, said that although he’s pleased with Obama’s lead, he is afraid Obama will lose momentum if he and his volunteers are not careful. He said his fear is based on the political situation in Florida where Obama is nearly even with McCain, despite frequent visits to the state.
“He has lead in other swing states, but in the most important state, he can’t pull away,” Summers said. “If he can’t win Florida, how is he going to win other key states?”
In Sunday’s Mason-Dixon poll, Obama led Florida 48 percent to 47 percent. Both candidates have plans to visit the Sunshine State often during the next week to vie for its 27 electoral votes, the most of any swing state.
Other states will also receive their share of attention.
Tara Spinoza, a sophomore in public communication at American University, is originally from Pennsylvania. With 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the only state won by John Kerry in 2004 that is in contention this year. This is compared to 10 states President George Bush won in 2004 that are now up for grabs.
Spinoza said that earlier in the year her family was enthused about McCain’s prospects of winning Pennsylvania. However, now they are not so sure. Obama leads in the Big 10 Battleground poll with a 52 percent to 42 percent advantage as of Oct. 22.
“Election Day is as big as Christmas at my house,” Spinoza said.
She said she plans on skipping her calculus class on Election Day and traveling home to vote Republican with her family.
“Before school started, it looked like McCain was going to take the state away from the Democrats,” she said. “Now, who knows?”
Although both Florida and Pennsylvania were expected to be swing states from the beginning of the campaign season, the real surprise this year has been that states such as Missouri, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina have become battleground states. Bush easily carried the four states in 2004, but polls show Obama with an advantage in each.
Tyler Jolly, a sophomore at George Mason University in education, is from Chesapeake, Va., near the border of North Carolina. He said most people back home are surprised by Obama’s sudden popularity in the two traditionally red states. Obama enjoys a 52 percent to 44 percent lead in Virginia, according to Saturday’s Washington Post poll.
“The difference is that Obama has been talking to people all year, growing support, raising volunteers,” he said. “For a while, nobody really noticed until he got momentum. Then he started to take off. Now he is all everyone talks about in some parts of the two states.”
Despite Obama’s lead, few students are calling the race over.
Wes Pines, a senior at George Mason studying education, is originally from Nevada. He said he is still undecided and considers his home state as well as Colorado and New Mexico to be the same way.
Obama leads all three western swing states, but not by large margins. Bush won all three states in 2004 by a combined margin of 2.66 percent. Pines speculated this election will be the same way with one candidate barely winning all three states.
“Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico all have the same concerns and the same issues over the economy, housing markets and immigration,” he said. “Both candidates are visiting the states8212;not as heavily as the eastern states because there are less electoral votes out West8212;but they are there the same amount.”
Right now the race is too close to call, said Jamie Manwin, a senior at American University in psychology. She is originally from Iowa, but said her home state is not a must-win for either candidate. She said their focus should instead be solely on Florida, Ohio8212;which has 20 electoral votes8212;and Pennsylvania.
“If Obama wins those three states, he will win for sure,” she said. “McCain needs those three states and then a handful of others he will probably pick up anyways. It will be interesting to see what happens.”
Editor’s Note8212;Jed Layton is a U student reporting from Washington, D.C., through the Hinckley Institute of Politics and Shantou University.
