As wildfires rage across northeastern Utah, firefighters are using an arsenal of techniques to combat the flames. Thanks to a U researcher, firefighters nationwide may soon have another aid in their fight — more accurate prediction of fire danger.
During a study of the Santa Monica Mountains in southern California, where frequent blazes have charred thousands of acres in recent years, researchers looked at the drying of vegetation and when it is most vulnerable to large-scale fires.
Based on the amount of precipitation received during the spring, researchers can determine how hazardous the upcoming fire season will be. Fire experts can also determine when the worst fires of the season will likely begin.
“We’re usually within two weeks,” said the study’s principal author Philip Dennison, an assistant professor of geography at the U. “In half of the years we looked at, we were within one week.”
A fire outside the town of Neola, Utah, about 100 miles east of Salt Lake City, has burned more than 40,000 acres since Friday, when three people were killed. Almost 700 firefighters are working to quell the blaze, which was last reported to be about 20 percent contained.
While Dennison said a study in Utah similar to the one done in California would be beneficial, it would be difficult because of Utah’s more diverse mix of plants. The California study focuses on moisture levels within one specific sagebrush-like plant.
“The grasses that grow up in between the sagebrush (in Utah)?are as important in determining fire danger as the moisture in the sagebrush,” Dennison said.
Dennison’s co-authors are Max Moritz, a wildland fire specialist at the University of California at Berkeley, and Robert Taylor, a fire specialist at Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area.
According to the study, three key ingredients are needed for a large-scale fire: high winds, low moisture in the vegetation and, of course, a spark. The study determined that vegetation in the Santa Monica Mountains will reach a critically low moisture level of 71 percent by July 13, give or take two weeks.
Despite the early start of this year’s fire season, researchers found no trend indicating fire seasons are starting earlier in the Santa Monicas. In contrast, Dennison said much of the Western United States has been experiencing earlier fire seasons due to an early snowmelt, which he attributes to global warming.
Even though the study was done in California, Dennison said that many of the concepts learned could be applied in predicting Utah fires.
“Firefighters can know when they need to have more firefighters or more equipment (available),” Dennison said. “Residents can know when they need to have the brush cleared from around their house and when they need to have an evacuation plan.”
APAn out-of-control wildfire in the Ashley National Forest near Roosevelt, Utah, burns Saturday. Although it is early in the season, Utah wildfires have already proven to be fatal, killing three men last Friday.