Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk predicted possible outcomes of the current Palestinian-Israeli stalemate. He spoke Wednesday at a lecture sponsored by Middle East Center in the Fine Arts Auditorium.
After describing the current situation as the “most bitter conflict ever” between the two sides, Indyk gave both bleak and optimistic predictions.
The first possible scenario he described is that responsible leaders among the Palestinians would take the initiative and respond to Ariel Sharon, Israel’s prime minister, themselves. The act would render Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat ineffective.
Indyk sees Arafat taking only “half measures” in controlling the terrorist acts committed by Palestinian groups, though Arafat has the power of 30,000 men to do more.
“At best, he gives a 50 percent effort,” Indyk said. “It’s not a question if he can stop [terrorism], but if he is willing.”
Indyk also believes that the Palestinian uprising, or intifadah, has been a “disaster” to their cause. It failed to generate support among the Arab states for the Palestinians and also soured Palestinian relations with the United States.
“The great achievement of the Oslo Accord has been to get the support of the United States [for] an independent Palestinian state,” Indyk said. In the 1994 Oslo Accord, the two sides created a framework in which Israel would essentially trade land for peace.
The second possible scenario is that Arafat would take the initiative to provoke a response from Sharon, who has been prone to use force to retaliate. The action would in turn provoke an international response against Israel.
Although Sharon has been prone to use force, Indyk described him as a man in conflict. The general, politician and prime minister in Sharon sometimes contradict each other.
“Sharon [the general] believes he has the green light from the Bush administration [to use force],” Indyk said. “Sharon the politician can’t decide if the right is better than the left?Sharon the prime minister knows the limitation of force [and] the most important thing is to avoid any daylight between Israel and the United States. Arafat would exploit that.”
The third possible situation is that Simon Perez, a leader in the Labour Party, would move away from the government because he finds it difficult to stay in the coalition. This would cause Sharon to move to the right and increase the use of force to destroy Arafat.
The fourth possible outcome is moderate Arab leaders would come together and take the initiative to prevent the situation from worsening. They would take custody of the Palestinian cause and offer Israel full peace in exchange for returning to the borders drawn in 1967.
“If you know anything about the Arab leaders,” Indyk said, “you know this is an unlikely scenario.”