Even though scientists have tried to predict earthquakes for hundreds of years, it might be a waste of time, according to U geology research associate professor Craig Forster.
The reason for predictions is to minimize fatalities and loss of property. But, Forster says, “predicting earthquakes is like searching for the Holy Grail.”
Nonetheless, Forster’s research on central Japan’s Mozumi Fault may help predict future earthquakes. His study, recently published by the American Geophysical Union, focuses on the distribution and age of water within a fault.
This research can help scientists with future predictions.
Forster has traveled to Japan over the past several years to study water and rock samples from the Active Fault Survey Tunnel, constructed specifically to study the Mozumi-Sukenobu Fault.
“This is probably the only time that people have intentionally constructed an underground tunnel across an active earthquake fault,” Forster said.
Japan, in an effort to minimize earthquake disasters, spends an estimated $100 million a year on earthquake research and early warning systems. Two major tectonic plates-the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate-sit under the country, making it more prone to earthquakes.
In order to better understand precursors to earthquakes, the Japanese Nuclear Cycle Development Institute funded the construction of the tunnel.
Forster became involved because of his “own interests of the way fluids move through faults.” His research, he said, “adds to the information base that people use in trying to understand how frequent earthquakes may be in the future.”
While Forster’s research adds to earthquake information gathered by scientists, he again stresses accurate earthquake prediction is nearly impossible.
“One should be very leery of putting together the words ‘predict’ and ‘earthquakes,’ because there is little possibility of actually doing that.”