Playing in the AFC’s North Division is a lot like bar-hopping in Denver after a Colorado State/Colorado game: You’ll do fine as long as you don’t get shot in the ass. Of course I’m referring to Steelers linebacker Joey Porter’s misfortune last weekend, but it really does apply to this division.
Every team has at least one very solid unit and one glaring weakness. Whichever team is able to bulletproof its shortcomings will win the division. The Steelers and Browns will pit their potent offenses against Baltimore’s tough defense, and the Bengals will watch with vested interest for next season.
Despite the fact that this division lacks an elite team, it still might send two teams to the playoffs because each team gets to play the Bengals twice. Baltimore and Pittsburgh might be in even better shape if Cleveland’s defense is as bad as it looks on paper.
Then again, this is the NFL, the most unpredictable of all major sports. So it is not completely outside the realm of possibility for the Browns or even the Bengals to run away with the division. That being said, I like the Browns and Bengals to fall flat on their respective faces and allow the Steelers to win the division by default.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming in with the division’s second-best offense and second best defense, the Steelers will be the best overall team in the division, combining good coaching and great athletes.
The offense will rely on three outstanding wide receivers to stretch defenses and open holes for Jerome Bettis and Amos Zereoue. If the running game falters, you will see the Steelers mimic the Raiders’ pass-heavy style of play and still be effective.
Despite losing Porter for what looks like two or three games, the Steelers’ linebacking corps is among the NFL’s elite and will lead the defense this year. Along with the line, they will have to create enough of a pass rush to make up for a very weak secondary. If they can’t do this, teams with good passing attacks like the Raiders, Titans and Rams will give them more than they can handle.
It’s my contention, however, that the strength of the Steelers’ offense will outweigh the weakness of their defense and they will be playing in January.
Predicted Finish: 10-6
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are a team on the fringe this year with question marks dotting the roster. However, they are competing in one of the weaker divisions, and seemingly have a relatively weak schedule (T-21). Because of this, they have a good chance to make the playoffs if some of their question marks turn into exclamation points.
Brian Billick is an excellent head coach whose arrogance is overshadowed only by his talent and versatility. He will have his hands full this year working with a rookie quarterback and a weak corps of receivers, but he may be able to develop these units under the protection of a great running game.
Running back Jamal Lewis is one of the best workhorses in the game (1,327 yards last year) and tackle Jonathan Ogden can single handedly wear down a defensive line with his power, size and speed.
The defense will improve vastly with the return of Ray Lewis and the addition of Terrell Suggs. The only questionable unit will be the defensive line. The Ravens’ defense is structured so they just have to fill gaps and eat up blocks so the linebackers can make plays. Again, the Ravens seem to be hiding a weaker unit behind a great one-a sign of good coaching. It will take more of this good coaching for Baltimore to be successful this season.
Predicted Finish: 9-7
3. Cleveland Browns
If defense wins championships, then the Browns are in big trouble. They have completely revamped their linebacking corps, replacing reliable, proven players with pure speed guys, and they lack depth on the line and in the secondary.
On the other hand, the Browns should have a potent enough offense to keep them in games. With two able quarterbacks pushing each other, and one of the deepest and most talented wide receiver groups in the NFL, the Browns should score plenty. Couple that with a good power running game, which the Browns are capable of, and you might see them controlling games on the offensive side of the ball the way the Ravens will control games on defense.
If the Browns’ offense lives up to its potential and the defense rallies behind Dave Campo’s new simplified system, the Browns could make the playoffs for the second straight year, but I doubt it.
Predicted Finish: 7-9
4. Cincinnati Bengals
With Marvin Lewis calling the shots, this team is on the rise. However, they are still a few years from a winning season. They have a lot of young talent on offense, including Carson Palmer, who will get a year to learn the system before he is thrown into the fire. If he does play because of injury or the futility of Jon Kitna, he will be well-protected by a solid line, especially the tackles.
This year, the offense will once again rely on Corey Dillon, but may have a more formidable passing attack with the emergence of wideout Chad Johnson last season.
The defense will suffer after losing Takeo Spikes, but should be OK with the addition of run stopper Kevin Hardy at middle linebacker. The secondary will allow big plays and may cost the team some games.
This team is at least one year away from the playoffs, but they are headed in the right direction, or should I say they are headed in a direction, which is an improvement over the last 12 seasons.
Predicted Finish: 6-10