Don’t get me wrong — I don’t want it to be like this. Honestly, I don’t. Stop looking at me like that — I feel appropriate guilt already. I’m starting to feel sick. My ulcer is acting up. But there’s no way around it: The Yankees have been the best team in baseball, bar none, for the last three months, and there’s no reason to think that it won’t continue.
They’re going to win it all. They’re going to have bragging rights again. Deal with it.
Don’t freak out just yet — this certainly isn’t a done deal. This isn’t the ’98 Yankees. But if you’re playing the percentages, there’s no other way. This group of eight playoff finalists might be the most flawed group I’ve seen. I said the same thing last year, and just look what happened. The Tigers’ flaws bit them at the wrong moment, and a barely-.500 team ended up winning it all.
This year, I see it going down one of two ways. Either a) the Yankees win the Series, or b) the Yankees get to the Series and then lose to a lesser team whose rotation gets hot at the right time.
I had the Tigers penciled in all season. They were the only team that could potentially have no major weaknesses once October rolled around. But the bullpen never got its mojo back. Gary Sheffield finally broke down under the physical rigors of the designated hitter position, and the team’s biggest strength (starting pitching) pulled a collective Mitch Williams. So, with Detroit out of the picture, we’re left with an offensive powerhouse with an ancient pitching staff (Yankees), a trendy former Cinderella with glaring holes all around which has been sabotaged by two foreigners (my beloved Red Sox), a team that would be better off trotting out its pitching machine in a save situation (Indians), and a team with a one-man offense and a rejuvenation-happy miniature primate that outlived its usefulness five years ago (Angels).
Since everyone’s sick of the two AL East juggernauts, the Indians have emerged as a trendy pick. I don’t care if they tied for the best record in baseball — it doesn’t matter. Joe Borowski is their closer. The man has a 5.07 ERA. The Indians have a 0 percent chance of winning it all if he’s their last line of defense. Zero-point-zero.
The Angels would essentially need Chone Figgins and Orlando “I should still be playing for the Red Sox instead of that **** Julio Lugo” Cabrera to steal five bases each — per game — to create enough offense to advance past Boston or New York, so they’re out. That leaves the two aforementioned juggernauts. As much as I want to say Boston will take it all again, I can’t pull the trigger. I’m a passionate Sox fan armed with DirecTV’s Extra Innings package — I know this team too well. When you can trust one of your four starting pitchers and one of your three outfielders, it’s hard to expect much.
That skinny prick J.D. Drew caught fire in September, just enough to fool people into thinking he’s finally “turned a corner.” Julio Lugo had exactly one good month this season. Kevin Youkilis is hurt and slumping. Dice-K is Derek Lowe in disguise. Tim Wakefield has a bad back and isn’t even on the ALDS roster. Curt Schilling is suddenly a Jamie Moyer doppelganger. And Eric Gagne is a terrorist.
Only Jacoby Ellsbury can save us. I’m convinced of this. He’s our wild card…and yet, I’m still picking the Yankees. I can’t play the “they’ve been there before” card, because so have the Sox. But I can play the “they can score as many runs as they want against anybody, so it doesn’t matter how old and run-down Mussina and Clemens look” card. So, I’m playing that one.
I could still see any of the four NL teams beating the Yankees under the right circumstances, just like 2001 and 2003. I’d love to see the Phillies, the Rockies, the Mets, the Diamondbacks or the Cubs take it all. But I can’t call it.
The senior circuit has two great offensive teams with terrible pitching, one great pitching team with no hitting and one team managed by Lou Piniella. Out of a hat, I’ll say offense wins. Let’s go with the Phillies. I picked them in March, I’ll stick with ’em. Unfortunately for the Yankee hater in all of us, Cole Hamels can’t pitch all seven games. And if it comes down to the bullpens…well, unlike Philadelphia’s closer, Mariano Rivera doesn’t beat up his wife. So, karma could play a factor.
All things being equal, the Yankees still have the best team on paper. I’ll go with the odds this time. The House wins again.