In a time of economic upheaval, high energy costs and an unpopular war, Utah remains as conservative as ever, panelists said Wednesday at the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
But young voters overwhelmingly supporting Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama could turn some Utah races blue.
“A lot of these local races come down to the young voters energized by Obama, and if they get out and vote down the ticket with him things will change,” said Hinckley Institute Director Kirk Jowers. “If all this enthusiasm turns into a low turnout again, the Republicans will probably win those close races.”
If Sen. Obama continues to energize Utah’s youth vote this fall, Democrats in close state congressional races could find themselves beating out Republican incumbents8212;a significant development in Utah’s Republican-dominated Capitol, panelists said.
U professor and local pollster Dan Jones said although polls suggest Utah voters will overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Sen. John McCain, predicting Obama’a appeal is challenging because the Illinois senator’s strongest constituency8212;young voters8212;prefer cell phones to the land lines that are used in large surveys.
“We’re not getting the 18- to 24-year-olds in our polls,” Jones said. “Are they going to turn out in Utah and go for Obama or are they going to stay home like they have in other years? I really think Obama will do better in Utah that what my polls have shown. This is the election they’ve got to show up, or I don’t know what the future will hold for Utah.”
Former Hinckley Institute Director and Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson said the majority of Utah will vote Republican no matter what.
“The phenomenon of Utah hanging in there, being traditional Republican the way they’ve always been is more cultural than political,” Wilson said. “We put a great stake in our churches and associations. If you belong to (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) you vote pretty much solid Republican across the board, and we’ve had no reason to break the culture here.”
Wilson, along with three other panelists, joined KUER’s Doug Fabrizio for an hour-long discussion on the election season for Fabrizio’s daily “RadioWest” show.
One issue that all the panelists agreed on was Gov. Sarah Palin’s effect on the Republican Party. Salt Lake Tribune columnist Rebecca Walsh said Palin’s down-to-earth, blue-collar appeal breathed new life into McCain’s campaign after she was announced as his running mate, but suggested that her initial appeal could be waning.
“She’s likable, she’s charismatic and people don’t care if the details are there,” Walsh said. “I think people that want to vote for Palin will vote for her regardless of her experience,”
The panel discussion will broadcast Friday on KUER 90.1 FM at 2 a.m. and 7 p.m.