DAYTON, Ohio8212;Most of Chillicothe’s Main Street was quiet and calm, but on opposite ends of the thoroughfare, two storefronts bustled with activity. Main Street is home to both the town’s Republican and Democratic headquarters, separated by just two blocks.
At the Democratic headquarters, volunteers hurried about in an organized chaos. Some were painting signs, others making phone calls8212;all in preparation for Barack Obama’s visit.
Two blocks away, Jim Locke stood inside the GOP headquarters, where he volunteers three times a week, excited with other volunteers for Sarah Palin’s visit to nearby Wilmington. Locke was a registered Democrat until four weeks ago.
He said Chillicothe is split down the middle politically. Independents make up 57 percent of the city’s registered voters. Democrats make up 23 percent and Republicans have 20 percent, but with the recent economic crisis, the state is leaning more Democratic.
Political analysts call Chillicothe a “bellwether city,” expecting it to reflect national trends on Election Day. In the past two presidential elections, Chillicothe’s vote has been a mirror image of the national vote, off by less than one-tenth of one percent. Because of this accuracy, the city has become a must-win for both candidates if they want to be selected at a national level.
“Whoever would like to get elected should be elected here first,” Locke said, also mentioning Chillicothe’s importance in affecting which candidate will receive Ohio’s 20 electoral votes.
Ohio is a good indicator of the country because of its population structure, which represents mainstream America, said Dan Jones, a political commentator and pollster and part-time politics professor at the U.
Both presidential candidates have visited Ohio during the past two weeks. Sen. Obama stopped in Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus, Chillicothe, Portsmouth and Toledo. The McCain campaign visited Strongsville, Wilmington, Columbus, Cincinnati and St. Clairsville.
No Republican candidate has been elected without winning Ohio. The last candidates elected without winning Ohio were John F. Kennedy in 1960 and Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
“It is imperative that McCain wins Ohio because it has a very significant history in regard to voting patterns,” Jones said. “Since Michigan and Pennsylvania are basically out of play for McCain, Ohio is much more important.”
Brad Bauman, a spokesman for the Democratic party in Columbus, said voters in the southern and northern regions of Ohio are typically Republican, but tend to be Democratic in cities like Cincinnati and Cleveland and in the center of the state. However, he noted more areas have started to lean to the left as the economy has declined over the past eight years.
The streets of Columbus are dashed with closed shops with newspaper and cardboard lining the windows. For Sale and For Lease signs plaster the glass8212;they have been up so long the handwritten phone numbers and price estimates have started to fade.
In front of a closed retail store, Tim Rice and his girlfriend Marcy Reccia epitomized Ohio’s divided political population. Wearing “I Just Voted” stickers, they were returning from casting early absentee ballots. Both voted for different presidential candidates.
Rice, originally from a small town an hour south of Columbus, voted for John McCain because he wanted less government regulation. Reccia, originally from Columbus, voted for Obama because she thinks he can fix the economy.
“The country areas of Ohio I am from have distrust with the government. We want less government interference,” Rice said. He blamed the economic crisis on government policies that encouraged banks to give out risky mortgages to get more families into homes.
Reccia disagreed and joked that she voted just to stop Rice’s vote from counting.
“We are all so split in our opinions over how the economic situation should be dealt with,” she said. “Nobody seems to know and we are all scared.”
Ohio has been hit hard by the failing economy. Ohio lost a quarter, about 235,000, of its manufacturing jobs in the past seven years. In September, the unemployment rate in Ohio was 7.2 percent, representing the highest of any battleground state, compared to 6.1 percent nationally.
“Dayton’s economy is very terrible, particularly not easy for common people,” said Mark Anthony, a painter who sold his work outside of an Obama rally held in Dayton. Dayton has a look similar to Columbus, with several downtown shops empty or closed.
Jones suggested Ohio voters who have been laid off or fear being laid off are the group that will decide the election.
“The most important population type for the candidates to win is the white, middle class, working male,” he said. “Males are more worried about deep economy issues and taxes. Right now it looks like the candidate that best addresses those issues and convinces these males will win.”
Zheng Jialiang and Hua Qi contributed to this report.
Editor’s Note8212;Jed Layton is a U student reporting from Dayton, Ohio through the Hinckley Institute of Politics and Shantou University.
Photo by Hua Qi /Hinckley Institute Journalism ProgramOhio is an important state to win in the up coming election so both craniates have had campaign stops in Ohio the past weeks like this one for John McCain with Joe Thomas and Brady Quinn from the Cleveland Browns.