Two Middle East scholars shared their insights on the recent Iranian elections on July 18.
The lecture, titled “What is Happening in Iran,” was delivered in English and Farsi and given at Salt Lake City Public Library by Farideh Farhi, an independent scholar who currently teaches at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Bahman Baktiari, director of the U’s Middle East Center, who delivered his insights in Farsi for an audience of Iranian immigrants at the J. Willard Marriot Library.
Farhi said both the reformists and the conservatives made miscalculations in the election, and underestimated each other’s capacities and powers.
“The mess we’re in at this point is because of this miscalculation,” Farhi said. “Both sides, the reformists and the conservatives, miscalculated in this election. In the process, (they) underestimated each other’s capacities and powers. And the mess we’re in at this point is because of this miscalculation.”
Farhi explained how the conservatives underestimated Mir Hossein Mousavi’s ability to instigate enthusiasm among the people and have the masses mobilized, and that even when they saw that he able to mobilize his supporters, the conservatives still manipulated the results and came up with numbers that were simply unbelievable. She said the number of votes exceeded the number of eligible voters in this election by nearly 5 million.
On the other hand, she continued, the reformists thought that once they could mobilize 10 million to 11 million people to come out on election day and vote, this would allow them to win fairly, and that the conservatives would have to accept the result to avoid turmoil.
The conservatives, feeling very secure about their popularity, had no intention of respecting any popular vote, and never accounted for the surprise voter turnout, she said.
As one can see, disorder in the nation quickly erupted.
On June 16, a silent rally was held to protest the fraudulent victory of incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. More than 3 million Mousavi supporters came out to demonstrate what they saw as a fraudulent claim to victory by Ahmadinejad on June 16, asking in unison, “Where is my vote?”
“They don’t want to overthrow the Islamic republic, or change the regime, Farhi said. “They just said, ‘I voted and my vote did not count.'”
She said that the Iranian people voted because they believed in their democratic system, but the major governmental mismanagement that has occurred these past few weeks has prompted suspicion and frustration.
“There is no doubt that a good chunk of the population, I would argue the majority, voted for the challenging candidate and they are very upset about that,” Farhi said. “But then one cannot deny the fact that Ahmadinejad, the president, also has supporters.”
Farhi said that Ahmadinejad’s public challenge against American foreign policy had won him popularity and support around the Middle East, and that despite his popularity as a leader, the fact that he was able to win by such a landslide, even in the home provinces of other challenging candidates, reinforced the belief that the election was undisciplined.
At a prayer on the day before the lecture, former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, spoke in support of Mousavi.
When Farhi was asked to comment on the speech, she praised him for his respect for the will of the people.
Rafsanjani requested the release of those who were imprisoned for demonstrating, and he requested a debate on national television, and for an open political conversation on the future of Iran.
The fallout from the election and subsequent protests in Iran are not yet clear to Farhi, particularly whether it will be that the people become more radical or just step away in disgust from the political commotion.
Nevertheless, because of the history of Iranian politics, Farhi is optimistic about the outcome of this voting calamity.
“Actual extensive violence doesn’t exist in Iran, so that gives a sense of a little bit of hope that this crisis can be overcome through negotiations and the people’s participation in the process.”
Listen to the audio report here.