In late October, the Communist Party of China came together for their annual Plenum, a meeting of the party’s top officials and leaders. These meetings are held behind closed doors, but the decisions therein have large ramifications on the future direction of the People’s Republic of China.
Although the consequences of the latest meeting will become clear only in time, it is rumored that much of the dealings were an attempt by Chinese President and Communist Party leader, Xi Jinping, to further cement his power. Through his far-reaching programs to root out corruption (which can just as easily be defined as ‘dissent’), and through political maneuvering, Xi is already the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
With this Plenum, it is assumed that he set in motion the effort to maintain his power by loosening rules on tenure that would allow his closest allies and himself to rule for longer than normally allowed. Many think he’s aiming to secure his leadership for at least three terms. To put that in perspective, no other leader of the People’s Republic, not even Mao Zedong, has had more than two terms.
Hu Jintao, the previous president and party leader, carried out policy and party politics with a much softer hand by emphasizing consensus in party doctrine. At the end of his presidency, however, the seeds of rebellion in the communist ranks were already present. While traveling, some state-run media outlets ran headlines asserting that “the general secretary [the communist party leader] should not be the highest authority.” Articles of this kind were subsequently erased and replaced by loyalist sentiment upon his return to China. When Xi seized the reins in 2013, many of Hu’s closest supporters and loyalists in the party were eliminated. Ling Jihua, the former president’s closest adviser, was sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of ‘corruption.’
While it’s not uncommon for the Communist Party to root out naysayers, the infighting and turbulence with which this transition of power occurred is uncharacteristic. It’s not hard to see it as a shake-up in thinking by the party’s leadership in reaction to internal social pressures, and those pressures are many.
Since Xi took power, many of China’s longstanding and heavy-handed approaches to capitalism and social regulation have been lifted. The one-child policy was recently abolished. A ban on video games was abolished, though intense scrutiny of their content continues. These changes all reflect an attempt to bridge the gap between communist culture and the lifestyle of the west. But it also exposes a fear within Communist leadership. A fear of satisfying a populace that wants for the conveniences of western lifestyle without losing its grip on power. Why else would it reverse course on such longstanding policies and core tenets? Why else would the top ranks be so shaken, if not for a profound fear of shifting social realities in the country?
On the economic front, things aren’t much better. Although China remains one of the great economic powers, those pillars are crumbling. Nearly 50 percent of China’s GDP is reliant on manufacturing. This sector is losing importance every day, since China produces more coal, steel and cement than it can sell. As a result, they turned inwards and rode a wave of real estate development. The bubble has since burst, however, and many apartments and developments in the country now stand empty.
On the other hand, although it is the fourth largest oil producer, it is also the world’s largest oil importer. The struggle to keep the lights on and the cars moving is a hard one to overcome for a population so big, even with China’s abundance of natural resources. The Chinese Economy is in desperate need of repair and it won’t be long before the ship sinks.
The status quo in China is rapidly devolving. Not only is there a social upheaval as China orients itself toward Western consumerism, but a successful Chinese economy is increasingly reliant upon the people’s sense of security and comfort.
Where does the confidence go when the economy goes? Out the door.
It’s a perilous place for the Communist Party and even more perilous when it comes to international relations. It’s no coincidence that the Chinese are throwing around their military weight in the South China sea and elsewhere. President-elect Donald Trump recently fielded a call with the Taiwanese President, a country which China doesn’t recognize and claims as its own territory. In response, China lodged a diplomatic protest to the action. Although the move was uncharacteristic on part of America, the U.S. has sent over $14 billion in military equipment to the country.
For the United States, the move signals President Trump’s reluctance in tolerating China’s iron-fisted tactics. On the Chinese side, the diplomatic uproar illustrates how the Communists are using foreign domineering to save face with the Chinese people. As Xi consolidates the ranks of the Communist Party, he also has to find a way to ensure confidence in communism. What better way to do that than by directly confronting the West?
One fact is clear: Chinese communism and western democracy are on a collision course.