The insurgency in Iraq has been reeling from a pair of blows and may never recover from them, according to U.S. Embassy Rep. to Fallujah John Kael Weston, a U graduate who spoke Tuesday at the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
First, American and Iraqi forces seized the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah last November.
Then in January, nearly 60 percent of eligible Iraqis turned out to elect an interim national assembly.
“Having spent 18 months in Iraq, I don’t think I would have predicted that the momentum would have swung as much as it did,” Weston said, pointing to the lull in insurgent attacks since the U.S. victory in Fallujah-followed by successful elections.
What the insurgents lost in Fallujah was their central base of operation, and what they lost in the elections was their claim that they represent the political aspirations of the Iraqis, Weston said.
He added that he sees the surprisingly high voter turnout despite insurgents’ threats as a message from Iraqis that they support the U.S.-sponsored coalition.
“They associated voting with improvement,” Weston said, and he added that he is hopeful the new interim assembly will make good on the Iraqi mandate.
Weston’s responsibilities in Iraq have been in al-Anbar, a huge desert province from Baghdad to Jordan, an area he calls the most dangerous in Iraq. “Al-Anbar is 4 percent of [Iraq’s] population, 40 percent of the territory and 80 percent of the problem,” Weston said.
Within the province, Fallujah “has always been a problem, even under Saddam-a city of traitors and raiders lying on the trade route from Amman [Jordan] to Baghdad,” Weston said.
In April 2004, four American security contractors in Fallujah were pulled from their cars and doused with gasoline, set ablaze, beaten, mutilated, dragged through the streets and hanged from a bridge before rejoicing crowds. The U.S. military lay siege to the city but withdrew after several days in response to mounting unrest across Iraq, Weston said.
For the next seven months, the city was a no-go zone for the U.S. military and a green-light zone for insurgents, Weston said. By November, after elections in the U.S. “the decision was made-let’s move into Fallujah,” he added.
A combined U.S.-Iraqi force of 10,000 fought for 10 days of “the most intense urban warfare that we’d seen in Iraq, and actually the most intense the marines had seen since Hue City in Vietnam,” Weston said.
In Fallujah, insurgents left 580 weapons caches, 29 factories for improvised explosive devices and two car-bomb factories, Weston said. He has since helped the city’s residents secure funding to repair properties damaged in the assault.
Unlike Vietnam, Weston said America’s campaign in Iraq “is high-stakes, a huge gamble” with many interests on the table, including the interests of neighboring countries as well as American interests on military bases, democratic reform and access to oil.
U.S. strategy in Iraq is based on replacing American troops with effectively trained native Iraqis, Weston said, a process he believes is making progress with significant investment in American resources.
He acknowledged that U.S. occupation forces, many of which are reserve or National Guard units serving extra tours, are limited resources.