Sen. John McCain’s decision to choose Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee may draw attention back to the GOP and rally support from discouraged party members, but isn’t likely to lessen the popularity of Sen. Barack Obama among students at the U.
“Obama should win this race, so (McCain) needed to shake up the dynamics of this race to give him any kind of chance,” said Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
By adding Palin as his running mate, McCain will likely strengthen the vocal support for the GOP among U Republicans who weren’t going to vote, said Jeremy Strand, vice chair of the U’s College Republicans student group.
A lot of conservative Republicans on campus do not care for McCain because of his voting record, Strand said. Palin, who is polled as more strongly conservative, will likely encourage Republicans who had previously decided to abstain from the electoral process, to come out and vote for their candidate, he said. According to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, Palin polls 78 percent positively among Republicans.
However, the decision will not likely sway support from one party to another among U students, since McCain did not choose the state’s most popular Republican choice: Mitt Romney. According to a CNN poll, 88 percent of Utah residents between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for the former Massachusetts governor, while only six percent voted for McCain in the primary election.
Had McCain added Romney to the GOP’s ticket, student votes would have been radically affected, Jowers said.
“A lot of Utah wanted Romney. I wanted Romney…but in picking Palin, a lot of Republicans are reenergized,” Strand said.
Nonetheless, McCain’s choice to run with the first female vice-presidential candidate on a GOP ticket should still peak student interest and increase the popularity of the election as a whole, he said. While it may not ultimately lead to an increase in popularity for McCain, it will bring his ticket into students’ conversations, according to Jowers.
“The campus (will still) be leaning Obama as the rest of the nation, especially 18- to 25-year-olds, are,” Jowers said. “But this pick certainly gives them a reason to take a second look (at the GOP).”
But supporters of Hillary Clinton might not be swayed to join McCain simply because Palin is a female candidate. On one hand, it’s gratifying for a woman to take such a step, Jowers said. On the other hand, her policies are in direct conflict with some of Clinton’s, such as abortion and gun control.
Oakley Gordon, president of the U College Democrats, said that Democratic support on campus will not topple the fact that the state will likely cast its majority vote for McCain. In the 2004 election, more than 70 percent of voters in the state of Utah voted Republican and handed George W. Bush his strongest showing against Democrat John Kerry in the entire election. Due to McCain’s support of the Iraq war, Jowers said he has been closely associated with President Bush in the minds of many voters, including students, despite efforts to separate himself on other policies.
However, McCain might not win the state with the same advantage, Gordon said.
“It’s about narrowing that margin, and bringing more attention to Utah,” he said. “If the vote disparity between parties shrinks, Republican candidates may campaign harder in Utah to secure their place over their Democratic counterparts.”
“When we heard it wasn’t Romney…there was a collective sigh of relief,” Gordon said.