A recent SNL skit with host Pedro Pascal has stuck with me these past few weeks. The set-up was a gameshow host (Bowen Yang) asking contestants trivia questions about contemporary movies and television shows only for none of the contestants to answer a single question. Although undeniably humorous, it did point out how the average person is pretty disconnected from the incredibly vast plain of the entertainment landscape. That is not the case for the writers at Arts Desk at the Chrony since the Oscars have received consistent coverage.

Still, the Oscars is widely considered to be the absolute pinnacle of recognition a movie can achieve, aside from the box office. With the 95th annual Oscars Ceremony just around the corner, it’s time to break down the nominations, our predictions and entertainment-specific politics surrounding this year’s awards ceremony.

General Audiences

It’s no secret that awards show viewership ratings have continued to decline or plateau over the years. The only thing gaining major attention has been last year’s infamous “Slap” incident. More people remember the moment when Will Smith slapped Chris Rock following a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith than remember what movie won Best Picture during that same awards broadcast.

It was “CODA,” by the way.

One reason for the decline in viewership is the Academy of Motion Picture Art and Science’s insistence on not nominating movies that the majority of the viewing public has actually watched. More mainstream movies may not be to the quality of those nominated, but they still have their own considerable merits.

It’s even an open secret that many Academy voters don’t actually watch the movies they nominate, instead nominating them because one of their friends produced or starred in them. Still, some mainstream fare did get recognized like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (EEAO) with 11 nominations, “Top Gun: Maverick” with six nominations, “Avatar: The Way of Water” with four nominations and “The Batman” with three.

Again, that’s not to say all the nominees are not great, but more so to highlight a potential reason why general audiences don’t tune in to awards shows. What audiences do instead is read opinions online. With apps like Tik Tok and Twitter and Letterboxd‘s rise in popularity, the ability for viewers to express their thoughts and provide personal ratings is incredibly easy. Letterboxd experienced an explosion of users during the height of the Coronavirus Pandemic turning a once niche social media platform for cinephiles into something even people who enjoy “Lightyear” can use. That is also the case with sites like Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB, but the more substantial reviews on both sites are still the critical scores since they are more influential in Hollywood. Letterboxd is more the layman’s tool.

The Academy and Letterboxd announced a new partnership that will involve the social media app with the awards ceremony. For example, nominees will read reviews and appear on The Letterboxd Show podcast as well as Oscar-themed “Showdowns” which are user-made movie competitions. With this new partnership, perhaps the Academy will be able to make the Oscars more mainstream and talked about in the general space. This upcoming awards ceremony will certainly put that to the test.

Noteworthy Nominations

The nominations for Best Picture are “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness” and “Women Talking.” There is no story Hollywood loves as much as ones about themselves, which is why Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical movie “The Fabelmans” has emerged as a critical darling with seven nominations. Yet another movie about Hollywood, Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon,” only got a meager three nominations in the craft categories and no nomination for Best Picture. “All Quiet on the Western Front” is a pretty standard “war is hell” movie, something the Academy has always liked. But what they also love is classic Hollywood fare exemplified by “Top Gun: Maverick.”

The nominations for Best Actor are Austin Butler for “Elvis,” Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” Paul Mescal for “Aftersun” and Bill Nighy for “Living.” It is great to see Brendan Fraser return to the silver screen after his horrible experience in the past and a subsequent lull in his career, and whatever the quality of “The Whale” may be, it’s great to see Fraser getting work again. Colin Farrell won the Golden Globe for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” so he is more likely to win the Oscar despite this being his first nomination. Golden Globe wins are a great predictor of who will win the Oscar.

The nominations for Best Actress are Cate Blanchett for “Tár,” Ana de Armas for “Blonde,” Andrea Riseborough for “To Leslie,” Michelle Williams for “The Fabelmans” and Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” was able to secure a nomination for Best Supporting Actress following Angela Bassett’s incredible performance. Bassett already won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress so her potential Oscar win in the same category is likely. Similarly, Michelle Yeoh won the Golden Globe for Best Actress for EEAO, so her chances of winning at the Oscars are greatly improved as well.

Snubs and Scandals

Viola Davis is the biggest snub of the year. Davis has been nominated three times and has won Best Supporting Actress before for her role in “Fences,” yet given her commanding presence in “The Woman King” it’s hard to believe she was not nominated again. It’s worth mentioning criticisms the movie received for how it portrayed the Dahomey tribe’s role in the African slave trade, as historical accuracy has always been a problem in Hollywood. However, now that Davis has officially become an EGOT winner perhaps she can sit back and rest on her laurels.

Similarly, Danielle Deadwyler was snubbed for her role in “Till” as the grieving mother of Emmett Till. Recently, Deadwyler spoke out about the snub and misogynoir in Hollywood on the Kermode and Mayo’s Take podcast. The actress said, “We’re talking about people who perhaps chose not to see the film. We’re talking about misogynoir. It comes in all kinds of ways. Whether it’s direct or indirect, it impacts who we are.” Ana de Armas’s nomination for “Blonde” is surprising considering the swathes of controversy surrounding the movie’s depiction of Marilyn Monroe’s life. Yet, her nomination is not the most contentious. “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” was not the smart investment Netflix executives thought it would be as it only got a single, measly nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, which it only qualifies for as a sequel. There is not even a nod to Daniel Craig or Janelle Monáe or a bit of recognition for costuming, which is insane considering the iconic blue and white striped vintage-style safari suit Craig wore. Similarly, Jordan Peele’s “Nope” did not receive any recognition whatsoever which is disappointing considering how critically lauded Peele’s “Get Out” was.

But by far the biggest scandal this year is the unprecedented and aggressive campaign to get Andrea Riseborough nominated for Best Actress for her role in “To Leslie,” a small independent film about a woman who squanders her lottery winnings and life along with it. Because the movie came from such a small studio, it received a minimal release, a limited ad campaign and no awards campaign. Riseborough’s nomination might have more to do with the fact that the film received enthusiastic praise from the celebrity friends of the team behind the film. To Riseborough’s credit, the movie has done well critically as it received a 93% Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes from the critics who actually watched it. Still, with this unusual awards campaign, it seems more like Riseborough got the nomination for having a lot of famous friends, rather than for her acting performance. The Academy does have guidelines for how awards campaigns should be done, and they have recently decided not to rescind her nomination but instead to basically give her a pass and review the awards campaign process in the future.

With all this in mind, it does paint a clear picture for another exciting awards ceremony. Some upset wins will happen, and some expected wins will happen as well. Regardless, it will be a night to look back on yet another fantastic year of film.

The 95th Oscars will be held Sunday, March 12, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood and will be televised live on ABC with Jimmy Kimmel hosting.

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