Unbiased Committee Should Select Utah or Stanford for Playoffs
Tyler Crum
While Utah and Stanford were on the receiving end of arguably two of the more disappointing losses over the weekend, the biggest loser in the long-run was the Pac-12, whose reputation was severely damaged in the eyes of the national media and the College Football Playoff Committee.
Prior to this weekend, both the Utes and the Cardinal were in the discussion for a playoff berth, and a one-loss Pac-12 champion would have definitely had a powerful enough résumé to be selected for the four-team playoff.
Now the odds are stacked against any potential champion from the West, and many analysts have ruled out these teams entirely from the playoff picture, barring a miracle (or disaster, depending on who you’re talking to). While it does seem that a near-impossible set of circumstances and a severe reshuffling of the college football world would be necessary to send the Pac-12 champion to the semifinals, so long as it is a two-loss team like Stanford or Utah, there’s still a reasonable chance that either team could find themselves in the running for a national title.
Now, I am not saying that any team with just a couple of losses belongs in the playoff picture by virtue of being the champions of a Power-5 conference, since that mindset directly contradicts the founding principles of the College Football Playoff. However, if the CFP does what it was created to do — which, according to their mission statement, is to “select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites,”— then the eventual Pac-12 champion could more than likely be included in their selection.
According to the CFP’s website, the standards by which the committee ranks teams include “win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and conference championships won,” almost all of which are categories in which a two-loss Stanford or Utah team could lay claim to be among the best in the country. Obviously the biggest obstacle in the way would be the two losses for both teams, but looking past this criteria for a moment, the committee could consider the fact that Stanford and Utah have better strengths of schedules than any other team in the running for the playoffs except Alabama and LSU, according to numerous football analytics sites.
Not to mention the fact that the Utes have had several impressive wins, including the unforgettable dismantling of Oregon just two weeks after the Ducks nearly took down Michigan State, and against Michigan, which has since blasted its way through Big Ten play, and who would only be a one-loss team had it not been for the infamous muffed punt against MSU. The Cardinal have had a remarkable season as well, dominating in conference play after recovering from the initial shock of losing to Northwestern.
In the end, metrics and speculation can only go so far in trying to determine who the four playoff teams will be and the only rankings that really matter are the final CFP rankings that come out on Dec. 6. The playoff committee is not afraid to stir up controversy and rock the boat, as they showed last season. The committee put eventual national champ Ohio State in the No. 4 spot despite its pretty unimpressive résumé and a bad loss over the flashy Big-12 co-champions TCU. Pac-12 fans are going to have to place their faith in the unbiasedness of the 13 committee members who control college football’s playoff.
I’m not saying the road to the championships will be easy, and any fans of Utah or Stanford should still be praying for some misfortune to befall the Crimson Tide, Cowboys, Buckeyes and virtually every other one-loss team that is between them and a No. 4 ranking.
However, the Utes and Cardinal should just focus on things they can control and play these last few games with all the grit, toughness and style they can muster and win convincingly enough to show the committee that they are two of college football’s finest teams.
@tylerfcrum
Two-Loss Teams Prove Pac-12 Can’t Compete in Playoffs
by Brock Jensen
Tough weekend — not only for Utah, but also for the entire Pac-12 conference. With the conference already struggling this season, compared to the other Power 5 conferences, it just further cemented the fact that the Pac-12 will be left out of the playoff. Both of the conference’s top two teams that had a chance — Stanford and Utah — lost last weekend, leaving the entire conference with teams that have at least two losses.
I’d like to say that if both teams (Stanford and Utah) win out that they would have a chance, but unless something crazy happens to all of the teams in the top eight or so, that won’t be the case. There would have to be a big shakeup and a lot of top-ranked teams losing games for the Pac-12 champion to even have a shot of being considered. And even if all that were to happen, both the Utes and the Cardinal need to win out until they face each other in the Pac-12 Championship.
The largest reason I believe a two-loss Pac-12 team would be on the outside of the playoff is the relative strength of the conference compared to the other Power 5 conferences. While they still have a decent number of teams ranked in the top 25, the conference lacks the “elite” team that it has previously had and that the other conferences have.
Before the season began, USC was thought to be that elite team. With senior quarterback Cody Kessler and athletic wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster returning and a top national recruiting class coming in, the Trojans were supposed to be the elite squad that would represent the Pac-12 in the CFP.
But because USC struggled early in the season, it couldn’t claim that title of “elite team,” so there’s no coveted team that gets every other team’s best shot.
Think of Oregon the last few years. The Ducks have clearly been the top dog in recent memory and typically always received their opponents’ best play. A win over them was a big deal for any team’s résumé — i.e. Utah’s win at Autzen Stadium this season.
But because all the teams in the conference have beat up on each other, no team has been able to separate itself from the rest of the pack and emerge as a playoff contender. They are left with just a bunch of alright teams. They’re good teams, yes, but not necessarily enough for the committee to justify putting them in, especially since that would involve jumping a number of quality teams with more impressive résumés in the process.
The résumés of the other teams are just stronger than what the teams in the Pac-12 have. Yes, its obviously going to be frustrating for whichever team wins the Pac-12 with just two losses to not get into the playoff. But at the end of the day, the Pac-12 just hasn’t had enough big wins against out-of-conference opponents to get the committee’s attention. You could argue that the best out-of-conference win was Utah’s, which came against Michigan. Even then, there just hasn’t been enough.
There is still plenty of excitement in the Pac-12, though. I mean, there’s still a conference championship at stake. And with a handful of teams still in the mix, it will prove to be an eventful conclusion to the season.
@brocck_jensen02